The 2010 Senate Race in Kentucky

Kentucky’s Jim Bunning will be 79 when he is up for re-election in 2010. Will he retire? Earlier this week, he said that he would run for re-election. He has also stated a fundraising goal of $10 million for this next cycle. That is significantly more than the $6.5 million he raised when he barely defeated Dan Mongiardo in 2004. Mongiardo, elected Lt. Governor in 2007, spent $2.9 million against Bunning that year. On September 30, Bunning reported having just $175K on hand. When will we know if he will retire? In the last cycle, the earliest retirement announcement came in January 2007 (Allard), although the bulk of such announcements came in the September-October timeframe.

Until this year, Kentucky had voted for the winning Presidential candidate every year since 1964. It supported Carter once and Clinton twice. This year, it went for McCain. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell was re-elected this year by a 53% to 47% margin. He out spent his Democratic opponent, Bruce Lunsford, by a substantial margin, $21.0 million to $10.7 million. Four of the six members of the US House representing Kentucky are Republicans, as are both US Senators. However, in 2007, Kentucky elected Democrat Steve Beshear as Governor, giving him 59% of the vote. Along with Beshear, the state elected Democrats to five of seven positions in the State Government.

So, the state is a mixed bag with respect to Political Party. It is likely that a strong and well-financed candidate may fare well against Bunning. Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo is considering a run in 2010: he narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004. He was elected in 2000 to serve in the State Senate before his US Senate campaign in 2004. He followed that with last year’s successful run as Lt. Governor tied to Beshear. Should Mongiardo opt to run for the Senate, he will start in the hole: his latest FEC disclosure reveals $600k in debt.

There is also significant discussion about 6th District Congressman Ben Chandler entering the race. He served as Kentucky’s State Auditor for four years and then as Attorney General for eight before running for Governor in 2003. He lost to Republican Ernie Fletcher in the General Election, but ran for and won a special election for Fletcher’s former seat in the US House. Chandler ran successfully for re-election in 2004, 2006 and 2008. In 2006, he had no Republican opponent. In 2008, he gathered 65% of the vote against an opponent who filed no campaign disclosures. This allowed Chandler to have over $1 million on hand as of November 24.

It is logical to think that Bruce Lunsford might be considering another run. He has not had success in three previous campaigns: he dropped out of the Primary for Governor in 2003, lost in the Gubernatorial Primary in 2007, and lost in a bid for the US Senate this year. That race for Senate against McConnell, however, gained considerable attention nationally. He wound up losing by 6%, but forced McConnell to spend his entire $20 million war chest on the race, thereby leaving him unable to assist other Republican Senate candidates. Will Lunsford run a fourth time? This is unclear, although he does not seem to be getting as much support as other potential candidates.


State Auditor Crit Luallen was given consideration as a candidate to face McConnell this year, but opted not to run. She has a long history of work in State Government, and has been elected twice as State Auditor, in 2003 and again in 2007.

Former Customs Agent Darleen Price has announced her candidacy. She served in the US Army Military Police Corps and has published a book on her experience in the Dept of Homeland Security entitled “BorderGate”. It details her battle against corruption in that agency.

Attorney General Jack Conway may have higher aspirations, but it is probably too early for him to consider this race unless the several other candidates mentioned above opt out. He did win his post in 2007 with 60% of the vote. He ran against former Rep. Ann Northrup in 2002, and helped Yarmuth defeat her in 2006.

Whether or not Bunning retires, this is likely to be a competitive race in 2010. An informal poll on DailyKos shows most support going for Mongiardo, Chandler, and Luallen. Any of these would give Bunning a challenge should he run, and perhaps be the favorite should he bow out.