Another Potentially Vulnerable Republican Senate Seat for 2010: Pennsylvania

Today, I continue my examination of Senate seats that will likely have competitive races in 2010. In three previous posts, I examined Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and New Hampshire, and all the seats held by Democrats that may prove competitive, focusing on North Dakota and Arkansas. Today, I will consider the first of two seats held by multi-term aging Republican Senators in states that have been voting Democratic in national elections in recent years.

Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is serving his fifth term in that body. At the end of the current term, he will have spent 30 years in the position. He is among the last moderate Republicans in the Senate, actually receiving a score of 60% from the Americans for Democratic Action, putting him ideologically closer to his Democratic colleagues than those in his own Party. He will be 80 years old when he would need to run for re-election. In 2004, he faced a formidable Primary challenge from the very conservative Pat Toomey: Specter barely won 51%-49%. Many believe that Toomey will mount another campaign for the 2010 cycle. In any case, the Democratic Party will set its sights on this seat.

Governor Ed Rendell would make the most formidable Democratic candidate. If Specter retires, many believe that Rendell could walk into the post. Even if Specter does seek another term, Rendell may well prove to be the favorite in this state which has voted Democratic in the last five Presidential elections. Rendell has a long history in Pennsylvania politics. He was elected District Attorney of Philadelphia in 1977 and served two terms before opting to pursue the 1986 Democratic nomination for Governor. He lost in the Primary to Robert Casey, Sr., who was elected that November. The following year, Rendell again lost in a Primary, this time for mayor of Philadelphia. However, he was elected to that post in 1991 and re-elected in 1995. He again ran for Governor in 2002, this time winning by a margin of 53%-44%. He was re-elected four years later by a 60%-40% margin. He is term-limited as Governor, so he is likely to set his eyes on his next political goal in the very near future.

Rep. Joe Sestak has been rumored to be interested in the seat, but a recent statement from his office is being interpreted as an indication that he will not run. He served 31 years in the US Navy, achieving the rank of Vice Admiral before his 2005 retirement. Sestak came to Congress by defeating incumbent Curt Weldon in 2006, winning 56% of the vote. He also beat Weldon in fundraising: Sestak raised $3.2 million to Weldon’s $2.7 million. Sestak went on to win re-election in 2008 with 60% of the vote. Again, he was a prodigious fundraiser, accumulating $3.9 million during the campaign. As of November 24, he had $3 million on hand.

Rep. Allyson Schwartz is also likely to be eyeing the position, having run once before for the Senate. In 2000, she ran in the Senate Primary, finishing in second place with 26% of the vote. She began her political career by being elected to four-year terms in the State Senate four consecutive times beginning in 1990. When former Rep. Joe Hoeffel decided to run for the US Senate in 2002 rather than for re-election, Schawrtz ran and won his seat, gathering 56% of the vote. She won by much wider margins in the next two elections. She is also a very successful fundraiser: when she ran for Congress, she raised $4.6 million, which essentially matched the amount raised by Hoeffel in his run for the Senate. Schwartz continued to be well above average in the next two cycles, in spite of holding a “safe” seat: she raised $2.8 million in 2006 and $3.1 million in 2008. As of November 24, she has $2 million on hand.

Another current member of Congress rumored to be interested in the Senate seat in Rep. Patrick Murphy. He first ran for Congress in 2006, shortly after completing a tour of duty with the US Army in the Iraq War. He won that race, barely defeating incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick. During that campaign, he raised $2.4 million. This year, he raised an impressive $4.0 million in his successful bid for re-election. However, he currently has but $200K on hand.

Chris Matthews is well known in his role on “Hardball with Chris Matthews” on MSNBC. However, his political life began more than 30 years ago. He worked on the staffs of four members of Congress, including Maine Senator Ed Muskie. He ran for Congress in 1974, losing by a wide margin in Pennsylvania’s 4th District. During the entire administration of Jimmy Carter, he worked as a speechwriter for the President. He went on to work for six years as a top aide to former Speaker of the House of Representatives Tip O’Neill. Since 1997, he has gained considerable recognition for “Hardball”, winning several awards in journalism. He was quoted on the Colbert Report and saying, “I want to be a Senator”. This was widely construed as meaning that he is considering a run in 2010. It has been reported that he is already forming a campaign staff, although he has denied that.

Although no one has yet officially declared his or her candidacy, I doubt that condition will persist for long. My guess is that everyone is waiting for some clear sign from Gov. Rendell: if he chooses to run, it would be foolish for any Democrat to oppose him. Should he not run, it would seem that Reps. Sestak and Schwartz are poised to seek the nominations. Both have substantial amounts of campaign funds on hand, characteristic of those with higher aspirations. However, Chris Matthews has perhaps the greatest name recognition nationally, and would likely be a formidable fundraiser.

Should he choose to run, Specter would likely face very tough races in both the Primary and, if successful, the General Election. In addition, he has had significant health problems. In 2005, he was diagnosed with an advanced form of Hodgkin’s lymphoma and underwent chemotherapy. The cancer returned in 2008, although in a less severe form, and he underwent another round of chemotherapy. In the face of these health issues, and knowing that such a pool of potentially powerful opponents awaits him in 2010, this would seem to be an appropriate time for Specter to retire.