More Potentially Vulnerable Republican Seats in the 2010 US Senate Elections: New Hampshire and Missouri

Over the past couple of days, I have begun to examine the US Senate races for 2010. On Thursday, I examined potentially vulnerable Republican seats in North Carolina and Ohio. Yesterday, I looked at all the Democratic seats that could be competitive. Today, I continue by exploring two more Republican seats that may be vulnerable, New Hampshire and Missouri.

New Hampshire – The New Hampshire landscape has seen a tsunami over the past two elections. This year, Obama outpolled McCain 54%-45%. The election of 2006 saw Democratic challengers upset both incumbents in the US House of Representatives. Both were re-elected this year and both expanded their margins of victory. This year, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent John Sununu in the race for a US Senate seat by a 52%-45% vote. Gov. John Lynch was re-elected with the support of more than 70% of the voters. He defeated incumbent Craig Benson in 2004, and was re-elected in 2006. The Governor is the only State Government official elected by a statewide vote. The State Legislature has shifted strongly toward the Democratic Party. Comparing pre-2006 numbers to post-2008 numbers, the State Senate went from 33% to 58% Democratic, and 38% to 56% in the State House. Women hold the top positions in both houses of the legislature.

This would seem to make conservative Senator Judd Gregg vulnerable as he seeks his fourth term. Nonetheless, Gregg is popular in the state, having won his last two elections with 68% and 66% of the vote. Gov. Lynch would seem to make the strongest candidate. Others being discussed as candidates are Congressman Paul Hodes and Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand. Hodes has run three times for Congress, losing in 2004 before running successful campaigns in 2006 and 2008. Marchand ran briefly for the Senate nomination during this past cycle before bowing out in favor of eventual winner Shaheen. It would seem that Lynch might well be the favorite should he decide to run. Other candidates would have an uphill battle, but may well prevail given the current political climate in the state.

Missouri – The 2008 Presidential contest in Missouri was the closest in the country: it was the last state “called” when John McCain was declared winner. It was the first time in a half century that the “Show Me State” had not voted for the eventual victor. Possession of the Governor’s mansion returned to the Democratic Party when Jay Nixon won by a margin of 58%-40%. This substantial margin did not, however, carry over to the race for Lt. Governor, where the Republican candidate won by a slim margin. Democrats won all other statewide offices in the State Government. The GOP holds majorities in both Houses of the State Legislature. At the federal level, the state is almost evenly split between the Parties. In 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated then-incumbent Jim Talent in US Senate race. The State’s contingent in the US House has five Republican and 4 Democrats.

So, is incumbent US Senator Kit Bond vulnerable? Bond served one term as Governor before winning the first of four Senate elections in 1986. However, every election has been close: his average vote has been just 53%, and he garnered only 57% as a three-term incumbent in the election of 2004, a “Republican year”. His approval ratings barely exceed 50% (SurveyUSA). So, Bond might be vulnerable to a strong challenger: do any such candidates exist in the Democratic Party? The answer to this is certainly a resounding “yes”. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan just received the most votes in Missouri history in winning 62% of the electorate in her re-election bid this year. She won the office in 2004 in her first campaign for public office. She comes from a prominent political family. Her grandfather Albert served seven terms in Congress. Her father Mel held several posts including Governor, and won the 2000 Senate election posthumously: her mother Jean was appointed to fill the post but was defeated in the subsequent special election. Finally, her brother was just elected to serve a third term in the US House of Representatives. Another prominent Democrat mentioned as a potential candidate is 14-term Congressman Dick Gephardt, who rose to the post House Majority Leader during his tenure in the body. Public Policy Polling recently found than Gephardt and both Robin and Russ Carnahan polled within a few points of Bond. If any of these Democrats run, it will be a highly competitive race.

In both New Hampshire and Missouri, multi-term incumbent Republicans may be vulnerable to strong challengers, and such challengers are available should they decide to run.