A First Look at the Senate Elections of 2010: North Carolina and Ohio

2008 marked the second consecutive election in which Democrats gained six or more seats in the US Senate. With one seat (Minnesota) yet undecided, Democrats have at least 58 seats, including the two independents who caucus with them. It is quite unusual to post such gains in successive years. Can it happen again? Perhaps this would seem unlikely, but it is hard not to be quite optimistic about the 2010 Senate elections. Optimistic, that is, if you are a Democrat.

Again in 2010, as was the case this year, there are few incumbent Democrats who seem vulnerable. There are some possible scenarios, of course, but by and large, 2010 is likely to be another year when Democrats may again gain seats. In the near future, I’ll examine those Democratic seats that may prove competitive, but today I want to begin to examine those GOP seats that may switch Parties in two years. While I’m not yet ready to put them in ranked order, I’ll begin today with two seats that seem to offer the greatest likelihood of falling to Democratic challengers. I’ll provide details of others in the coming weeks before finally providing my first rankings early next year.

North Carolina – Consider what has happened in North Carolina in recent years. The Governor has been a Democrat for the last 16 years, and will be for at least four more years with the election of Beverley Perdue last month. Her election means that there have now been three Democratic Governors in a row. The Democratic vote in the last three Presidential races has improved steadily (2000: 43%; 2004: 44%, 2008: 50%), and culminated with Barack Obama winning the state this year: it was the first time in 30 years that the state’s electoral votes went for a Democrat. They also hold 8 of 13 seats in the US House of Representatives. Democrat Kay Hagan just defeated incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole by 9%. Democrats hold 8 of 10 statewide positions, including Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State. And finally, they won outright majorities in both houses of the State Legislature for the third election in a row.

So, the table seems to be set for the defeat of Republican Richard Burr, the very conservative (0% rating from Americans for Democratic Action) one-term incumbent. With the state so full of Democratic incumbents, who will challenge Burr? Many names can be found in the rumor mills. Let’s have a look at three that would be powerful candidates should they choose to run. At the top of the list has to be Governor Mike Easley. He is completing his second four-year term: he could not run for re-election due to the state’s statutory term limits. This followed two terms as Attorney General. In 2004, he won with 56% of the vote while John Kerry received just 44%.

Another candidate, one for whom a “Draft Coop” website has already been started, is Attorney General Roy Cooper. He just won election to his third term in the office with 61% of the vote, the highest total for any statewide office this year. Prior to his 2000 election as Attorney General, he served four years in the State House and ten years in the State Senate. A recent poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows him with a 39%-34% lead over Burr.

The third strong potential candidate is Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. She just won her fourth consecutive term for the post. In both 2000 and 2004, she outpolled both Easley and Cooper. Prior to being elected Secretary of State, she served in the State Senate.

Barring a remarkable reversal in the mood of the country and the state, I think any of these can handily beat Burr, and claim this seat for the Democratic Party.

Ohio – This is a state that has seen a major shift toward the Democratic Party in just the last few years. In 2004, when Ohio was the focal point of the Presidential election, all six statewide officeholders were Republicans. However, in the aftermath of the 2004 election, and due to a major scandal surrounding then-Governor Taft, the state elected Democrats to the five top positions (Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Treasurer) in 2006. In the three latest Presidential elections, the Democratic vote stepped up slowly (2000: 48%, 2004: 49%, 2008: 51%). Sherrod Brown won the open US Senate with 56% of the vote. Mike DeWine, who had received 60% of the vote in 2000, had vacated the seat rather than face what would undoubtedly have been a tough re-election battle. In the US House of Representatives, Democrats picked up one seat in 2006, and three this year, reversing a 11-7 minority into a 11-7 majority. Currently, Democrats control the State House of Representatives, while the Republican Party holds a majority of seats in the State Senate.

In 2004, George Voinovich won re-election to the US Senate with 64% of the vote, having first been elected in 1996 with 56% to claim the seat held by the retiring John Glenn. Although he currently has a 51%-39% approval-disapproval rating (SurveyUSA, October 2008), three different Democratic candidates polled at least even with him in recent PPP polls. Let’s take a look at these three candidates in the order of their popularity as indicated by these polls. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (leading Voinovich 42%-38% in the PPP poll) was elected to the post in 2006 by a 55%-40% margin. She had previously been elected twice to serve as a County Judge. Prior to her elected service, she had worked as Legal Counsel in the Secretary of State’s office, and in private law practice.

Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, who also led Voinovich in the recent PPP poll, by a 40%-38% margin, has a long career of public service in Ohio. He was elected to one term in the State House of Representatives before moving on to the State Senate where he served for eight years. In 1990, he was elected State Attorney General. However, he lost in his bid for re-election in 1994. In 1998, he lost the race for Governor. In 2006, he appeared once again on a statewide ticket, running successfully as Lt. Governor on the ticket with Governor Ted Strickland.

The third potential candidate, who tied Voinovich at 33% each in the recent PPP poll, is Congressman Tim Ryan. He just won his fourth consecutive election to serve Ohio’s 17th district, receiving a whopping 78% of the vote. He served one term in the Ohio State Senate prior to seeking the Congressional seat. When he took office in 2003, he was, at 29 years of age, the youngest Democratic member of the body. His interest in the Senate position is, perhaps, confirmed by a speaking engagement at a County Party event on the other side of the state from his district.

There are other potential candidates who poll very close to Voinovich. In any case, recent Democratic success in the state and the recent PPP polls certainly suggest that this is a seat that can represent a gain for Democrats in 2010.