More on the 2010 US Senate Elections: Is Grassley’s Seat in Iowa Vulnerable?

Chuck Grassley has served in the United States Senate for nearly 30 years. When he entered the body in 1981, he had served for 15 years in Iowa’s State House and another six years in the US House of Representatives. When he comes up for re-election in 2010, he will have served in elective office for more than a half century. In each of his last four Senate elections, he won with more than 65% of the vote. However, he will be 77 years of age when he would next need to seek re-election.

If Grassley does seek re-election, is he vulnerable? Iowa has become more and more Democratic recently. It has voted for Democratic nominees for President five of the last six elections. The top five positions in the State Government are held by Democrats. In 1998, Tom Vilsack became the first Democratic Governor in 30 years. When Chet Culver was elected to succeed him in 2006, it was the first time in 70 years that the State had elected Democratic Governors back-to-back. The State Legislature is firmly under Democratic control. Three of Iowa’s members of the US House of Representatives are Democrats. However, when Grassley last ran, his opponent raised just $136,000 for the race. I guess a pertinent question is: when has a well-financed campaign been run against him?

What Democrats may choose to challenge Grassley, or run for the open seat should he retire? Former Governor Tom Vilsack’s name seems to be highest on everyone’s list. He began his political career in 1987 when he was elected Mayor of Mt. Pleasant. He moved on to the State Senate in 1992 before mounting his successful campaign for Governor in 1998. He was re-elected in 2002. In 2005, he began a two-year term as President of the Democratic Leadership Council, a highly influential organization within the Party. He briefly ran for President in late 2006 and early 2007, and was given consideration as a Vice Presidential candidate in each of the last two elections. Vilsack would appear to be the favorite should Grassley retire. There is discussion that a Vilsack candidacy would be the first serious challenge launched at Grassley in many years, one that might even provoke the Senator to decide to retire. In any case, the nomination would seem to belong to Vilsack should he want it.

Should Vilsack not run, who else might seek the seat? Lt. Governor Patty Judge would likely to be interested. Judge served two terms in the State Senate and two as Iowa’s Secretary of Agriculture before mounting a run for Governor in 2006. She ultimately bowed out in favor of Chet Culver, and became the candidate for Lt. Governor on the ticket that was ultimately successful. She will be 67 in 2010, which certainly is not an unreasonable age to seek the post.

Rep. Bruce Braley just won his second election to the US Congress. He won in 2006 claiming the seat after Republican Jim Nussle choose to run for Governor rather than for re-election. An attorney, Braley has also served as President of the Iowa Trial Lawyers Association. Although he won the seat in 2006 with 56% of the vote and raised $2.5 million in the process, he went on to raise just $1.1 million in winning re-election this year. He did win handily, with 64% of the vote, but the “average” level of fundraising does not, perhaps, represent the effort of someone with higher ambition.

Although I have heard no rumors to the effect, one cannot overlook the possibility that Iowa Speaker of the House Pat Murphy might have the desire to seek higher office. He will be just 51 in 2010, but will have served 20 years in the Legislature at that time. He has been quite involved in recent efforts to win a majority of seats in Iowa’s delegation to the US House as well as in the State Legislature for the Democratic Party. It will be of interest to see what Murphy’s next move might be.

If Grassley chooses to retire, I imagine the Democratic candidate will be favored. In any case, Tom Vilsack seems to be the most likely challenger or favorite, depending on what Grassley chooses to do.