The Senate Elections in 2010: Potentially Vulnerable Democrats

Yesterday, I began to look at the 2010 US Senate elections by examining two states (North Carolina and Ohio) where incumbent Republicans seem quite vulnerable. Today, I want to take a look at the Democratic incumbents who may be vulnerable, and discuss the scenarios that might lead to their re-election campaigns becoming competitive. As you all know, I really like to have objective numbers on which to base my analyses. This is often difficult. However, today I want to begin with hard and fast numbers and go from there.

There are 16 Democratic seats in the Senate up for election in 2010. Let’s start by looking at the Democratic Presidential vote in 2004 and 2008 in each of these states. Incumbent or not, those Democratic Senators sitting in states that tend to vote Republican in Presidential elections might be vulnerable against a strong candidate. I’ll begin by looking at three incumbent Democrats whose states gave Democratic Presidential candidates an average of less than 50% in the past two elections.

The Republican Party dominates North Dakota state politics. Of the 12 statewide offices in the State Government, members of the GOP hold 11. (The exception is the Agriculture Commissioner.) Republicans control both Houses of the State Legislature. This year, Governor John Hoeven was re-elected with 74% of the vote. The last time the state’s electoral votes went to a Democrat was 1964. On average, the state has given Democratic Presidential candidates only 41% of the vote in the past two elections. However, both US Senators and the state’s single member of the US House are all Democrats. This year, Congressman Earl Pomeroy received nearly 60% of the vote. Sen. Byron Dorgan, who will seek his fourth term in the senate in 2010. He has won his three previous elections with every increasing percentages of the vote (1992: 59%, 1998: 63%, 2004: 68%). His fellow Democratic Senator, Kent Conrad, has won four Senate elections, receiving 69% of the vote in 2006. So, is Dorgan vulnerable? It would appear that he is only if Hoeven runs against him. Should the Governor covet a Senate seat, some think he might choose to complete his term and then run in 2012 against Conrad.

Blanche Lincoln will be seeking her third term as Senator from Arkansas, a state that gave Democratic candidates only 42% of the vote in the last two elections. Arkansas is an enigmatic state with respect to the Parties. While voting for Republican candidates in each of the last three Presidential elections, every statewide officeholder in the State Government, both US Senators, and three of four members of the US House of Representatives from the state are Democrats. In addition, both House of the State Legislature have Democratic majorities. Sen. Lincoln, after serving two terms in the US House, has won two Senate elections with 55% and 56% of the vote. This year, when fellow Sen. Mark Pryor ran for re-election, the Republican Party didn’t even field a candidate to oppose him. None of this information suggests that Sen. Lincoln is vulnerable. The only thing mentioned that would seem to make her seem vulnerable is if former Gov. Mike Huckabee would run. There is every indication that Huckabee is setting himself up for another run at the White House, but a 2010 Senate candidacy can’t be ruled out.

Indiana is the third state to have given Democratic Presidential candidates less that 50%, on average, in the last two elections. Is Senator Evan Bayh, who will seek his third term in 2010, vulnerable? Bayh, son of former Sen. Birch Bayh, has a long career in public service. He served as Secretary of State for one term, Governor for two terms, and is serving his second term in the US Senate. In each of his last three statewide campaigns, he received more than 60% of the vote. The state is another interesting mixture of Democratic and Republican representation. Members of the GOP hold all statewide offices in the State Government. Gov. Mitch Daniels was just re-elected with 58% of the vote. Indiana’s other US Senator, Dick Lugar, is a Republican. Going into this year’s election, the state had not voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1964. However, this year, the state’s electoral votes went to Obama. The Democratic Party holds a 5-4 majority among the state’s member of the US House, having picked up three seats in the 2006 election. So, is Bayh vulnerable? It would appear not. Perhaps the only one who might make a competitive run is Gov. Daniels, who has recently said in no uncertain terms that he will not run for the Senate in 2010.

Are any other Democratic seats in danger? Some say that Colorado’s Ken Salazar is vulnerable. Recent surveys by Public Policy Polling pitted him against four likely rivals. They showed Salazar with sizable leads over all four, with only former Governor Bill Owens coming close. In addition, Colorado has been trending Democratic over the last few cycles.

In California, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger could be competitive against Sen. Barbara Boxer, should he decide to run.

In Delaware, Ted Kaufman was appointed as a “caretaker” Senator to replace Vice-President-elect Joe Biden, meaning that he would not run for election. This seat is widely viewed as likely to be won by Biden’s son, Attorney General Beau Biden. Some think, however, that Delaware’s sole member of Congress, Mike Castle, might run a competitive campaign for the post should he run.

Finally, if Hawaii’s Sen. Daniel Inouye should retire, Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, who is term limited, might seek the post and run a competitive campaign.

What is the bottom line? The only real danger that the Democratic Party faces in defending its Senate seats in the 2010 election is the candidacy of Governors and ex-Governors in North Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado, California and Hawaii, and perhaps a Congressman in Delaware. Perhaps the greatest threat is in North Dakota should Gov. Hoeven run against Sen. Dorgan, and in Hawaii should Sen. Inoye retire and draw Gov. Lingle into the race. I don’t think either of these is likely. Therefore, at this early date, I don’t see any evidence to suggest that any of the races for current Democratic Senate seats will be competitive.